Marli Guimarães Fernandes

Working Papers

When Women Run Against Men: Evidence from Political Platforms

Do female and male candidates campaign differently, and why? Using individual political platforms from French legislative elections between 1981 and 2024, I combine a transformer machine learning model with a regression discontinuity design that exploits the two-round structure of French elections to identify the causal impact of candidate gender on campaign content. Female and male candidates who barely qualify discuss the same issues in the first-round, but women write 6 percentage points less of their platform in a communal register. Between the two rounds, the gender gap in male-stereotyped topics rises by 4.7 percentage points, driven by male candidates, who withdraw from these topics and reallocate space to framing the national contest. This effect appears only when male politicians compete against another man, as they try to differentiate themselves from their opponents. Women increase their use of communal language, closing the gender gap, but do not adapt their behavior to their opponent's gender.

 

Work in Progress

Strategic Policy Responses to Far-Right Opponents

Do mainstream politicians adopt the far-right's agenda when they face it at the ballot box? Focusing on French legislative elections (1988-2024), I implement a regression discontinuity design and compare leading mainstream candidates whose far-right opponent barely qualified for the runoff with those whose opponent barely missed the threshold. I first document that facing a far-right opponent raises the mainstream candidate's probability of election by roughly 25 percentage points - evidence of a front républicain in which voters consolidate behind the leading mainstream candidate. Given this selection effect, I bound behavioral responses using the regression discontinuity design with sample selection of Dong (2019). Adjustment occurs in office rather than on the campaign trail: candidates do not change their campaign agendas, but once in parliament, elected candidates who faced the far-right devote 8 to 10 percentage points more of their debate speech to far-right topics in the raw comparison.

How to Win an Election Against a Populist

(Stage: data preparation completed. Estimating median voter preferences at the precinct level using empirical IO tools.)

 

Publications

Ne me quitte pas! School closures and electoral outcomes in France

(with José Tavares). Journal of Economic Geography, 2026.

 

Policy Publications

The effects of non-cognitive skills on the native-migrant wage gap

Migration Studies, 14(2), 2026.